Download Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas by Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten PDF

By Daniel Lieberman, Matthias Jonas, Zbigniew Nahorski, Sten Nilsson

Uncertainty research is a key portion of nationwide greenhouse gases stock analyses. the problems which are raised by way of the authors during this quantity, and the position that uncertainty research performs in lots of in their arguments and/or proposals, spotlight the significance of such efforts. insurance comprises: bottom-up as opposed to top-down emission stock methods, compliance and verification matters, and the position of uncertainty in emissions buying and selling schemes.

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Additional resources for Accounting for Climate Change: Uncertainty in Greenhouse Gas Inventories - Verification, Compliance, and Trading

Sample text

Thus, we might consider an adjustment based on uncertainty as described in Definition 1. 9 For example, if emissions estimates are 50% uncertain and we want to be 90% certain we have not exceeded our emission target by more than 10%, we would adjust the emissions inventory estimate upward by 20%. The adjusted emissions value would then be compared against the target emissions value to determine compliance. This adjustment provides a margin of safety; that is, a country would effectively need to reduce emissions by more than its commitment in the Kyoto Protocol to remain in compliance with commitments.

While the uncertainty of the “rest” will be high, it will take the opposite direction (inverse correlation) from the uncertainty of the specific sector, which is also determined by the low uncertainty of the total. Combining the individual sectoral uncertainties to an overall uncertainty necessarily yields the same result as that of the total–inverse correlation will cause relative uncertainty to decrease even more strongly than independent parameters would. The effect of inverse correlation plays an important role in the land use and land use change sector.

2003). The more closely linked to policy decisions the uncertainty analysis is, the more important it will be to quantify all relevant uncertainties. Another policy use of quantified uncertainty estimates might be as the basis for adjusting national inventories that are used to make compliance determinations in a system of international emissions commitments. In this case, given that inventory adjustments may necessitate considerable expenditures by nations on additional GHG control, policy 1 Introduction The national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory is an estimate of a nation’s total net emissions from all anthropogenic sources and sinks during the course of one year.

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